Asunto: Fans expectations

So firstly I didn’t say you managed poorly. Please re-read as it has nothing to do with your management. I made no mention of your management ability. I actually said in response to you about your own point about how some people manage better despite having less time played and so therefore the other person is somehow disadvantaged by having more fans but a weaker side overall. To this argument is where I made my point well in that case it’s the poor managements issue as it’s self inflicted.

We have very different opinions and we seem to disagree on just about everything. I probably also argued with you when you made the suggestion before anyway, wouldn’t surprise me. Have we ever agreed on anything?

Here’s why League position is a terrible idea for fan expectations.

1) The draw. Stronger sides play each other earlier so when a stronger side plays a weaker side who’s had an easier draw your suggestion here would mean the better side gets the expectation of losing. Yep that works great.

2) Instead if you look at previous season finish how do you determine the difference between sides promoting from different leagues or across leagues in the event of a cup match? Also oh can’t win the title let’s tank to get a favourable next season for what match expectations should be. Yep that also sounds like a great idea. 2nd to 9th in most leagues gives no benefits, so may as well tank to 9th stay up and then reap the rewards.

3) How does this work for friendlies which also count or for champion cup matches? There is no way to determine by how much someone should win by. Any change here means that yet another metric needed or a different algorithm depending on the match format. That’s hugely inefficient.

How is this any better?

I’m all for change if a better metric is determined but I’ve yet to hear anyone with a good enough metric that doesn’t have even worse problems. Fan club size works very well if you understand how it all links together and what constitutes fan growth. If you don’t then I can see why you see this as silly but it really isn’t except in the one case I’ve mentioned.
(editado)

Sure you can, and I've suggested this in the distant past - present league/standings.

wont work well because of the fixtures draw

some people will start with top of league table and then go down, others will start with lower half and go up

so you can have a situation where a team that got promoted gets an easy side, gets points while a stronger team has stronger opponents, gets less points - then they meet and suddenly the stronger team would be an underdog against a weaker team in your system

(plus it is entirely possible and often happens that a team that got promoted will be stronger even than teams #1-3 from previous season especially if some of them have redid their squad)

The fan base standard is idiotic because it doesn't factor present team performance at all

It is the best / easiest way there is unless you want to create an overcomplicated formula like the season expectations, based on ratings, fan club, money in account, position in last season etc.

To have a big fanbase you have to play and have results for a long time, otherwise you will go down fast... I'm at 1962 so a thousand less than teams in Danish league, where I could easily fit in

As for the fan base being idiotic it actually factors long term team performance. Doesn’t cover sudden improvement but it does cover long term perofrmance.

It also links in with fan mood that determines fans gained/lost, determines income from sponsors and gate receipts which in turn means maintaining a higher fan base should in most cases correlate nicely with who should be the better side of everyone was playing to win. It fails short term if a team suddenly improves quickly but you play them once or twice a season and by the third season if they’re as good as they should be then the fan club size will have narrowed significantly that it begins to work again.

(not for cometer in particular. Just replying to the thread)

I hope we can keep this thread about the Fan Expectations, in the hope that someone will listen. The idea is not bad in itself. It's just that whatever the algorithm does to decide what you are expected to acheive, it makes the wrong decisions. And the penalty is way too harsh. It's not smart enough to back up the otherwise good idea. And to quote one guy here: "Anything can be made better" (otherwise we would still be in the stone age and all that) - yes, you'd think so, but not all attempts are a succes immediately. Not all changes are for the better. And this was way better before it existed. Or: not ready yet.

Someone says the cup is not part of this. Oh, but yes it is. Below 30.000 attendance in the final. Both finalists huge failures because of this system. The guy who beat me: first ever cup win. But does he have a positive experience in the game of Sokker? no. Fans hate his club. Massive failure. Yes, he is number 8 and was expected to be top half. How far away is top half? 2 points. I am expected to win it all (along with 2 others, who somehow are not last years #1 and #2) I am second. It is progress, I should have a party, along with my fans, since it is a massive improvement. But no. Not #1 - we hate it. And how far away is the top spot?: 2 points. Way too harsh. I mean: I guess we could accept they want us to win, if in the end they could also say: You tried, it was close. And during the season: we can still do it!. That does not exist. If 3 teams in danish top tier are not occupiyng the top spot, they are failures. And... how did it get to the conclusion that it should be last years number 3, 4 and 5? Number 5 was 18 points behind last year's winner. And now they must win.

If this was Football manager, 4 teams would still have their manager after 11 rounds. The rest of us; fired. The current number 1, who is expected to be top-3 along with the 3 teams not expected to be in top half: not fired - yet.

Think we need to be careful of seasonal expectations vs satisfaction/expectations of a single match result. This thread has been used for both. Otherwise yeah I agree it should stay close as possible to on topic.

The former (seasonal expectations) has some issues still definitely. I don’t have any real suggestion to immediately make it better though, as I feel like no amount of tinkering will fix it. Feel like the intent may have been one way but the actual impact of this works against their intent and ends up punishing sides doing what they want them to do. It also messes up fan club sizes because that was tied to fan mood on the basis that clubs could easily enough get and keep mood to madly in love and that’s almost impossible to do now. This fan club size woild need rework because it didn’t get considered when the expectations change came in. It’s not fair the side winning the title is still losing fans because they can’t get their fan mood high enough.

The individual match expectations /fan satisfaction in recent matches I really don’t see too many issues. It works except in very special cases and there isn’t any alternative that makes it work better.

Ultimately both these form the overall fan mood these days which I guess is why this thread has had discussion on both.
(editado)

Someone says the cup is not part of this. Oh, but yes it is.

What I meant is that National Cups are not part of expectations, they only influence the recent matches satisfaction. So it doesn't matter if you won or lost the Cup game, it won't change the "rating of season" part.

Going by Adaca's situation

Rating of the current season: below expectations / league only
Rating of the last season: total failure / league only
Level of satisfaction with recent matches: 83% / league + cup + champions cup etc.
Level of satisfaction with fulfillment expectations: 12% / league only
Mood: 33% - Your supporters are depressed / everything put together (previous expectations + current expectations + recent matches)

haha I guess you can mean two things:) either you as in me and you as in the person who is managing badly haha
no worries

Going by Adaca's situation

((25*35)+(0*35)+(83*30))/100=33,65

I don't like the 5 step system in the fulfillment (0-25-50-75-100), linear would be better and 0% is really hard if it might be 20% in a linear calculation

Going by Adaca's situation

Funny thing here is that Adaca is actually underperforming (a little). It's still harsh, but the numbers You are discussing here are "only" based on his gentle "we expect top-3". He is in the Champions Cup for a reason... His fans should have expected the win. That's what is most broken. Who expects what and why (and why not, in this case).

But still, even in his case, he is just 1 spot behind fulfilling the goal (number 4 - same points as number 3) and even the champion with lenient expectations, one of the select few to play CC is a failure with depressed fans. Brooooken.

I agree with you two about schedule (and the lack of variety), but ultimately if the fan expectation simply took existing league each team were in, it would make a meaningful improvement. It takes forever to catch up to the league average on fans when you promote quickly back to back. It took me three seasons in ML to get to close to the ML fan mean. Blue is in his first season, and he promoted up to major league a season faster than I did. He likely barely has half the fans I do, and perhaps Tad as well. Yet Blue has beaten Tad, and nearly beaten me already. My 1000 extra fans in my fan base have no bearing on the fact he's produced an old team and great tactics that put him in the top tier of teams in our country, already.

If someone in League II beat your team, even if that II league team is similar in 'team skill' it could always be considered an upset. However, if you lost to another A-league team, say Portland Juniors, would it be THAT meaningful of an upset?
(editado)

I’ve explained why it wouldn’t be an improvement. It actually makes it worse for everyone because it’s entirely based on the draw. You need to look at the bigger picture here not what fits your current league scenario. Even randomising the draw still wouldn’t work. I’m not saying fan club size is perfect, it’s not, but in the scheme of things it is by far and away the best metric we have.

3 seasons in the scheme of things isn’t that much in sokker time. You play the side 6 times in that time and every time even if you lose it bounces back quickly with 1-2 wins.

I know the issue, all users have faced it at some point. I’m just aware that that’s a temporary pain and self corrects and it actually adds extra challenge to ensure you beat them whilst they’re developing a fan base. Basing it on league position is neither temporary or would self correct and impacts every match not just the odd 1-2 since a team has improved.

Portland is an interesting example because I have lost to them before when I tried to sneak extra training. It happens and it takes like 1-2 wins and you’re back where you were. You’re talking like you’re guaranteed to lose and then never see recovery or the recovery takes a long time. If you don’t lose there is no issue and if you do it’s salvageable.

The short answer is Tad shouldn’t have lost, they’re still the better team. If they don’t have magical strikers then they’ve got skills elsewhere that Blue didn’t. The rest comes down to tactics and also rng.

The actual drop was compounded by the fact a cup exit has I believe more weight then a league match. So the net effect really is that the cup exit probably had more effect then losing to a team with less fans. The fact they occurred together leads to the current scenario. 1-2 wins and you’re back at the top again.

"You can’t even suggest a better measure than what we currently have."
btw this can be interpreted in 2 ways,
1. a better measure cant be suggested because current one is perfect and this is what I assumed. If this is not what you meant, sorry
2. you meant I cannot suggest a better one. - this is true. I am only expressing feedback about how current one is lacking. It is not my job to run sokker or develop measures and I am a strong believer of user feedback.

"The short answer is Tad shouldn’t have lost, they’re still the better team. If they don’t have magical strikers then they’ve got skills elsewhere that Blue didn’t. The rest comes down to tactics and also rng."

I used transfers db to get skills of Blue's players (I won't paste them here for his sake). Few players decreased in value but most of the team's value was close to what it was at the time of purchase so accuracy of that was high.

1. his team has way better strikers - mine are barely level 11/12 and his 15/16
2. his team is also way better technique wise.
3. my team has way higher pace

the rest is not that far. then there is tactic which is high to measure and i would say based on current ML standings Blue is a better tactician. of course there is rng.

i think it is hard for the system to evaluate tactic (maybe with AI it would be possible but I doubt sokker is close to that) and rng is just rng.
so it is basically pace vs striking+technique

I dont think it is that clear that my team is stronger

scoring goals has a big impact on wins. even if some of my players are stronger in some aspect, I am not sure how to exactly compare it but I would weigh the striking difference high since without scoring goals it is tough to win.

My point was 2. In the sense that what we have isn’t perfect but it’s the best we have that I’m aware of and I’ve yet to hear an actual solution that works better than what we have.

I mean usually speaking with high primaries that brings ratings up, so if they’re beating you in that department but still getting less average ratings then yourself then I’d have thought you’d have better players somewhere else even if it’s just in a few spots. That’s an assumption because I don’t see skills. I mean things like form and pm/stamina massively inflate ratings too.

yea i think rankings arent always telling the whole things. I remember seeing some players who skillswise are weak but get way higher rankings than other players (form similar). But I also do not know what alternative would be better